Brazil markets eye key events in the week ahead

This week’s market calendar includes key inflation data from Brazil and the United States, central bank decisions, and corporate news from major Brazilian companies.

In Brazil, the main highlight is the release of the IPCA, the official inflation index, on Friday at 9 a.m. The data is expected to guide market expectations for the monetary policy of the Central Bank. The bank’s Monetary Policy Committee meets on June 16 and 17.

Abroad, the week’s focus is the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday at 9:30 a.m. On Thursday, investors will follow the Producer Price Index (PPI). Inflation data from the world’s largest economy draws attention after a rise in U.S. job creation, as shown by the Payroll report last week. The market has increased the chance that the U.S. central bank may need to raise interest rates, which boosted the dollar and pushed stock markets lower.

Analysts and investors are monitoring new events in the Middle East and their consequences. After Israeli bombings in Beirut, Iran launched missiles toward Israeli territory. This is the first time Iran has attacked Israel since the April ceasefire. U.S. President Donald Trump called Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to prevent an Israeli response. As tensions rose, the price of a barrel of oil increased 2.5% at 9 p.m. on Sunday, trading at $95.4.

In the eurozone, the European Central Bank will decide on interest rates on Thursday. In Asia, China will release external sector data and consumer inflation on Tuesday.

Corporate News

The board of directors of Cyrela (CYRE3) approved the cancellation of 3,353,550 preferred shares currently held in treasury. It also created a new buyback program to acquire up to 9,680,000 common shares and up to 4,800,000 preferred shares. The information is in a material fact sent to the market on Sunday night, June 7. The company stated that the cancellation will be carried out without reducing the company’s capital. The buyback program ends on December 8, 2027. Currently, 273,767,156 common shares are in circulation. Cyrela said the main goal is to apply available resources to buy shares on the stock exchange at market prices, aiming to generate value for shareholders. The acquired shares may be kept in treasury, canceled, sold later on the market, or used for participants in future share-based incentive plans.

Braskem (BRKM5) commented on information published in the newspaper Valor Econômico under the title: “Braskem should default on bond interest.” The article stated that, considering entering an out-of-court restructuring process, Braskem may not pay the $150 million debt related to interest on bonds issued abroad that matures in July, nor the August maturities. Given the relevant maturities starting in July, including interest payments on bonds due in 2028, 2030, 2031, 2041, and 2050, the company is trying to negotiate support from one-third of creditors to file the out-of-court process before that. Without this support, a judicial reorganization is not ruled out, according to the newspaper’s sources. Braskem clarified that on September 26, 2025, it hired specialized financial and legal advisors to help prepare a comprehensive diagnosis of economic and financial alternatives to optimize its capital structure. The company said the analyses from this diagnosis are still ongoing, and it and its advisors are advancing structured negotiations with creditor advisors. “In the course of this work, the company and its advisors consider different alternatives, including possible measures to reschedule financial obligations and protection against creditors,” Braskem said, noting that as of June 5, no formal decision had been made about the alternative or set of alternatives to be implemented.

Morgan Stanley reduced its stake in Totvs (TOTS3), as reported by the Brazilian company on Friday night, June 5. Morgan Stanley, on an aggregate basis and through its subsidiaries, reached a position equivalent to 2.6% of Totvs’ total common shares. Morgan Stanley said the sale of the stake is not intended to change the company’s control or administrative structure.

Raízen (RAIZ4) filed its Out-of-Court Recovery Plan with the 3rd Bankruptcy and Judicial Recovery Court of São Paulo. The information is in a material fact filed with the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM) early Saturday, June 6. In the document, Raízen said the plan has significant support from all creditor groups (holders of international bonds, local bonds, and banks), totaling 75.45% of the financial and unsecured credits covered by the plan, with a total value of R$ 64.7 billion, excluding intercompany credits. The company also said the plan establishes means and payment options for restructured credits, to be chosen by each creditor, including replacing restructured credits with new debt instruments and converting part of these credits into equity in the company.

Main measures in the plan include: (i) a capital increase of R$ 3.5 billion by Shell, to be paid in cash at the closing date, and, if it joins, R$ 500 million by Aguassanta Participações, owned by the family of Rubens Ometto Silveira Mello, controlling shareholder of Cosan, both receiving common shares; (ii) conversion of 45% of restructured credits into equity, through units composed of one common share and one preferred share issued by Raízen, at an issue price of R$ 0.50 per unit, implying a reference value of R$ 0.25 per share; (iii) replacement, refinancing, or amendment of the remaining 55% of restructured credits with new debt securities (New RSA Notes and New RESA Notes); and (iv) implementation of additional structural measures, including asset segregation, progress in the divestment agenda, and corporate reorganizations.

The plan also includes a payment option with a significant discount on the value of restructured credits, as well as an option with an early cash payment mechanism and a discount for creditors with smaller credits, subject to the overall aggregate limit in the plan of approximately R$ 150 million. “The plan represents a comprehensive solution for restructuring the financial debt of the Raízen Group, aiming to address short- and medium-term liquidity needs and establish a sustainable long-term capital structure,” the company said in the material fact. It expects the plan to significantly reduce its leverage, preserve operational continuity, and ensure equitable treatment for creditors. Raízen also noted that the plan should generate significant liquidity and reduce outlays in the coming years, easing cash flow and positioning the company to resume its value generation trajectory. The plan will proceed to court approval, with a 30-day period for creditor objections, to bind the company, its creditors (supporting, absent, or dissenting), and others.